We apply econometric methods to climate observations in order to disentangle the contribution to modern climate change from greenhouse gases and aerosols, both constituents of the atmosphere which been increasing in concentrations in response to industrial activity. Our preliminary results suggest a substantial masking of the greenhouse warming due to the compensating cooling effect that anthropogenic aerosols have on the Earth-atmosphere system. These results will be presented at the YCEI event at the COP18 meeting in Doha, Qatar in December 2012, and a manuscript presenting these first results from the project is in preparation.
Peter C.B. Phillips, Department of Economics