Klaus Keller, Penn State University, delivers a lecture entitled, “Deep Uncertainty of Climate Sensitivity Estimates: Sources and Implications”, during the YCEI conference, “Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Conversation with Climate Scientists and Economists”.
In a simple but important analysis, Mora and colleagues analyzed climate projections to identify when future warming will exceed the climate envelope of the past 150 years. They used multiple models (39) and seven climate variables (such as near-surface temperature …
Fran Ulmer reminds people that “Antarctica has penguins. The Arctic has people.” Ms. Ulmer was a University of Alaska Chancellor and Lieutenant Governor of Alaska from 1994-2002. She talks about the effects of climate change in Alaska where average seasonal temperatures have already increased by 4 degrees in summer and 7 degrees in winter. Her talk is wonderful for anyone who forgets how very different the situation is at the Earth’s poles: Antarctica is uninhabited land surrounded by an ocean, whereas the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by 8 nations.
William Nordhaus, Yale University, gives a lecture during the YCEI conference, “Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Conversation with Climate Scientists and Economists.” Explaining that he’s an economist, Nordhaus apologizes and says that what’s really relevant to the discussion is an understanding of statistics which is the subject of his talk.
Chris Forest, Pennsylvania State University, discusses estimations of climate sensitivity and testing of models against what is known about the past thousand years.
Stephen Schwarz, Brookhaven National Laboratory, delivers a talk entitled, “Empirical Determination of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity and Implications of Present Uncertainties”, at the YCEI conference “Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Conversation with Climate Scientists and Economists”.
Geoff Heal, Columbia University, discusses how scientists and the IPCC specificlaly focus on general tendencies related to climate change, whereas what economists need are more information about the outlying events, the disaster scenarios that motivate policy choices.
Martin Weitzman of Harvard University begins his discussion by reviewing the most recent IPCC Summary Report and the language they use for describing the likelihood of various climate sensitivity scenarios. He relates that language and those likelihoods to the various probability distributions calculated by climate and economic modelers.
Gary Yohe of Wesleyan University explains how the value of information regarding projections of climate sensitivity depends on:
1. what the decisions are to be made about and for whom, 2. the character of the decision space (states of nature, irreversibility, persistence, etc.), 3. decisions based on the range of “states of nature” and “their distributions”, 4. decision makers prior assumptions about those distributions, 5. decision makers’ attitudes (averstion) towards risk, 6. timing of the decision
Yale Professor Ken Gillingham welcomes participants in this YCEI sponsored workshop that brings together climate change scientists and economists whose modeling efforts hinge on the need to accommodate anticipated climate change in a warming world.