New York City’s Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resilience: Strengths and Limitations of Climate Model-Based Approaches
Radley Horton from Columbia University Earth Institute will speak on climate projections for New York City. The $20 billion Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) Plan for New York is grounded upon climate risk information provided by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). This expert panel, tasked with advising the City on climate-related issues, completed a ‘rapid response’ climate assessment with updated climate projections. The revised climate projections, developed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) climate model data and a revised, cutting edge sea level rise methodology (that incorporates global and regional components based on a blend of models, observations, and expert judgment), illustrate the City’s vulnerability to warming temperatures and rising sea levels. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and coastal flooding are all very likely to increase in frequency in the future. This talk will also explore the potential for outcomes outside of the ranges suggested by global climate models, focusing specifically on recent reductions in Arctic sea ice and their potential implications for mid-latitude weather in the Northeast U.S. and other populous regions.